Arguably the best first-round series of the 2025 NBA Playoffs could be reaching its breaking point Thursday night, as the Denver Nuggets hold a 3-2 lead over the Los Angeles Clippers. However, if the Clippers want to make Game 6 the penultimate episode rather than the series finale, they’ll need one player to rise to the occasion.
Why Game 5 May Have Been An Outlier
Before we get into the Clippers’ biggest X factor heading into Game 6, there’s something I need to get off my chest regarding Game 5. At a glance, a 131-115 final result seems pretty lopsided. But take a closer look and the Nuggets didn’t outplay the Clippers to the degree one might think.
The Nuggets won by double digits, despite being outscored in the paint, attempting fewer free throws and accumulating fewer offensive rebounds. That seems strange for a team which finished first in points in the paint per game, first in free-throw attempts and seventh in offensive rebound rate during the regular season.
So, how did the Nuggets manage to score so many points? Let’s take a look at their shot chart:
Now, let’s juxtapose that with the Clippers’ Game 5 shot chart:
The Nuggets were red hot from midrange and on above-the-break threes. Meanwhile, the Clippers were ice cold in the former and just around league average in the latter.
This would make some sense if the Nuggets were the better shooting team, but that isn’t really the case. Since Feb. 12 (when Bogdan Bogdanovic made his Clippers’ debut), the Clippers have been second in 3-point percentage in the NBA (39.6), while the Nuggets sit 11th in that span (37.1). So, the odds say this phenomenon will not continue to take form.
Also, the Clippers were much more efficient in the paint than the Nuggets in Game 5 — a variable far less prone to flukey single-game outcomes.
Why Norman Powell Is So Important
Despite their unsustainable shooting in Game 5, the Nuggets are still a formidable foe which has managed to win two games in this series without the jump-shooting gods weighing so heavily in their favor. To win, the Clippers will need all hands on deck.
Fortunately, they’ll be hosting Game 6 at Intuit Dome. Along with enabling them to unleash their deafening wall on free-throw shooters, it should also give their complimentary players a boost. While the data doesn’t completely align with this school of thought, conventional wisdom tells us role players tend to perform better on their home turf.
Norman Powell has been the shining star of this philosophy. Through two games at Intuit Dome, Powell is averaging 21 points on 72.5 percent true shooting. But when he leaves Los Angeles, Powell has turned into a pumpkin, scoring 12.3 points on 46.5 percent true shooting.
Here at Sportscasting, we’ve long understood unlike most role players, they have the firepower to become stars on special nights. When these eruptions occur, they can swing a game — or even a series — in their team’s favor.
Powell may be the most extreme example of this archetype in today’s game. He went on a heater so scintillating he kept the Clippers afloat while Kawhi Leonard was rehabbing from injury during the regular season.
With the Clippers at full strength, James Harden and Leonard are already enough for the Nuggets to contend against. When Powell is cooking too, it becomes overkill.
The clip above sums it up perfectly. The Clippers go to a Harden-Ivica Zubac pick-and-roll (a huge tactical point in this series). Aaron Gordon neutralizes the roll threat with a well-timed rotation, which Zubac counters with a kick to the corner to Leonard. Jamal Murray closeouts out to Leonard and the Nuggets get rewarded for all their efforts with a swing to Powell, who hits a physics-defying floater.
Speaking of the pick-and-roll, the Nuggets did a great job in Game 5 of making life difficult on Harden, who scored just 11 points on 3-of-9 shooting. If that trend continues, the natural reaction may be to let Leonard initiate more offense. However, he has some limitations as a playmaker, while Powell has something neither Harden nor Leonard can offer at this point: burst.
We’ve seen previously Jokic is at his worst in pick-and-roll defending explosive ball-handlers (i.e. last postseason against Anthony Edwards). While not as formidable as the league’s best, Powell is the Clippers’ best and brightest in this category.
As long as the Nuggets don’t keep shooting the ball like they roster five Stephen Currys, a big outing from Powell should be enough to push this series to a seventh game. It’s on him to step up and take advantage of the favorable matchup Denver presents. The Clippers may need it to extend their season.
